Excerpt from:  Commercial Real Estate Loan Tips
.
July 13, 2008

The Death of Real Estate Investing

Some Follow-Up Comments to a Brilliant Blog Post By Susan Lassiter-Lyons

Attention Ben Bernanke and the U.S. Treasury:  In a recent blog post called The Death of Real Estate Investing, Susan Lassiter-Lyons has brought up a very important issue.

Unless the Fed and the Treasury develops some sort of financing mechanism to help investors and speculators buy real estate using high-leverage mortgage financing at favorable rates, this meltdown in real estate values is going to continue. And its not inflation that keeps Ben Bernanke up at night ... its crushing deflation.

In my recent book, The Reverse Multiplier Effect - When Crushing Deflation Destroys America, our banks get scared and stop lending.  Over a trillion dollars in annual payments on existing loans kept flowing back to the banks, but the banks stopped rolling over their interest receipts into new loans.

Since the multiplier effect today is around 20, and since the multiplier effect works in reverse, the money supply of the United States started to disappear.  Homes fell over 70% in value, and the banks started foreclosing on most of the homes in the United States.

Well, folks, I fear the scenario that I described in my book may be coming true.  The book was written in early 2007, when gas prices were $2 per gallon.  I predicted $6  gas and a complete real estate estate meltdown, even more dire than that of today, by the year 2010.

Fortunately Ben Bernanke and the Fed are very aware of the dangers of deflation.  By propping up Citibank, Countrywide, Bear Stearns, and now Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Ben Bernanke has done a masterful job of preserving our institutions.  We are probably in a great depression right now, and Americans will probably have to endure a precipitous decline in their standard of living over the next 15 years.  Ben Bernanke can only do so much.

But Mr. Bernanke, if you're out there, please pay attention to Susan Lassiter-Lyons brilliant blog post.  If you want to save your banks by stopping the decline in real estate values, the country will need non-owner and commercial financing.  It's wealthy investors who have the incentive and the courage to buy foreclosed properties in a declining market.  It is these wealthy investors who have the dough to make timely payments on these new mortgages.  They just need some leverage and a reasonable interest rate.

by George Blackburne
Send e-Mail Email Me | Send e-Mail Email to a Friendc-loans.com | 

Comments
.

The Death of Real Estate Investing

Questions
Where can we get a copy of the book?  and why do you predict a 15 year turn around?  That seems very excessive.  Also,  I would love to hear any comments you have on the current state of our industry and or why with default rates still at or below 1.5% on CMBS loans (accounding to an article in Commercial Mortgage Insight) we are so affected by the subprime industry meltdown. 
.
.

Is it Really That Bad, George?

On my bookshelf I see "The Great Depression of 1990" by Dr. Ravi Batra, Copyright 1985. Isn't this perceived crisis just the latest in a long series of misperceived crises over the last twenty five years?

by John Gaudio

According to Finaxyz,

'Economists are good at predicting recessions. They've predicted eight of the last three.  -- there is no shortage of "professional" cynics all to trigger-happy to forecast doom and gloom.'

I sometimes think the markets are more contests of popularity and popular opinion than anything else.  We succeed as individuals because we choose to succeed.  When we believe there is no hope, we stop trying, and when we stop trying, we fail.

Tell me, George, and anyone else who has a good answer, what can we as individuals and private organizations do to succeed and prosper in this market?  I wasn't ready to throw in the towel in 1985, and I'm not ready to do it today! 

.
.

"Americans will probably have to endure a precipitous decline in their standard of living over the next 15 years..."

George:

While I agree with all your points on the incentives required to turn this mess around, there's no data to suggest the standards of living for Americans will fall sharply. In fact, the only evidence I could find indicates precisely the opposite is likely even during serious financial debacles such as the last round of bank failures (the 80's) and even the great depression. As great as that depression was, living standards actually improved - there were fewer homicides in the 20 years spanning before and after the depression, fewer infant deaths per capita, and a far higher ratio of high school and college graduates per capita. Medical care, life span, transportation, personal savings, and wealth accumulation are up every decade since the turn of the first millennium.

While your financial points are probably spot on, you need not attempt to scare me with misleading claims about living standards; it undermines your point. Besides, you had me at "Unless the Fed and the Treasury develops some sort of financing mechanism to help investors and speculators buy real estate ...". ;-)

But I digress - isn't all the fuss about bank failures being blown a little out of perspective? In the 80's (I think) we had more than 500 banks fail in one year, and more than 1750 were on the edge. How many banks is the Fed showing in the "likely to fail" category this year and next?  I heard it was no more than 200 [tops] for the next two years. This is a very small fraction of the almost 10,000 banks that are insured under the FDIC. And, doesn't a normal year have 30 to 50 failed banks? I'd love to see a post that compares the 80's bank failures to the current "crisis". Is it really as bad as everyone says, is it worse, or is it more political and media hype? I'm no financial genius, but the data indicates (as usual) that much of the problem is media hype.

I digress further - all of our investments are real estate (at the moment), and things (from my perspective) are pretty rosy. Our home is up an average of 18% per year for the last 10 years and more than 21% this year. All our condo holdings are in the 25% plus category for the last five years. As such, we're planning on more real investments, not less. Am I ignorant, or just pleasantly dumb? ;-)

Love your blog... but I also love Freakonomics.

.
.

Book Availability for George Blackburne's Reverse Multiplier Effect

Reverse Multiplier Effect is available at Amazon.com.

I've seen George's book on Amazon:

Paperback

http://www.amazon.com/Reverse-Multiplier-Effect-Crushing-Deflation/dp/0615175392/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1216653946&sr=8-1

Digital

http://www.amazon.com/Reverse-Multiplier-Effect-Crushing-Deflation/dp/B0014W6QT2/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1216653946&sr=8-2

It's a pretty good read. Fast to get through, and will leave you wondering whether you should buy that next latte or sink the money into your mortgage.

.
Note: 1 comment pending moderation

Syndication OptionsRSS (Rich Site Summary) Feed Atom Feed OPML (Outline Processor Language) Feed MYST-ML (MyST Markup Language) Content Feed MS-Office Smart Tag Subscription