Public Comments | C-Loans

Book Availability for George Blackburne's Reverse Multiplier Effect

Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:24:52 -0400

Reverse Multiplier Effect is available at Amazon.com.

I've seen George's book on Amazon:

Paperback

http://www.amazon.com/Reverse-Multiplier-Effect-Crushing-Deflation/dp/0615175392/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1216653946&sr=8-1

Digital

http://www.amazon.com/Reverse-Multiplier-Effect-Crushing-Deflation/dp/B0014W6QT2/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1216653946&sr=8-2

It's a pretty good read. Fast to get through, and will leave you wondering whether you should buy that next latte or sink the money into your mortgage.

"Americans will probably have to endure a precipitous decline in their standard of living over the next 15 years..."

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:32:02 -0400

George:

While I agree with all your points on the incentives required to turn this mess around, there's no data to suggest the standards of living for Americans will fall sharply. In fact, the only evidence I could find indicates precisely the opposite is likely even during serious financial debacles such as the last round of bank failures (the 80's) and even the great depression. As great as that depression was, living standards actually improved - there were fewer homicides in the 20 years spanning before and after the depression, fewer infant deaths per capita, and a far higher ratio of high school and college graduates per capita. Medical care, life span, transportation, personal savings, and wealth accumulation are up every decade since the turn of the first millennium.

While your financial points are probably spot on, you need not attempt to scare me with misleading claims about living standards; it undermines your point. Besides, you had me at "Unless the Fed and the Treasury develops some sort of financing mechanism to help investors and speculators buy real estate ...". ;-)

But I digress - isn't all the fuss about bank failures being blown a little out of perspective? In the 80's (I think) we had more than 500 banks fail in one year, and more than 1750 were on the edge. How many banks is the Fed showing in the "likely to fail" category this year and next? I heard it was no more than 200 [tops] for the next two years. This is a very small fraction of the almost 10,000 banks that are insured under the FDIC. And, doesn't a normal year have 30 to 50 failed banks? I'd love to see a post that compares the 80's bank failures to the current "crisis". Is it really as bad as everyone says, is it worse, or is it more political and media hype? I'm no financial genius, but the data indicates (as usual) that much of the problem is media hype.

I digress further - all of our investments are real estate (at the moment), and things (from my perspective) are pretty rosy. Our home is up an average of 18% per year for the last 10 years and more than 21% this year. All our condo holdings are in the 25% plus category for the last five years. As such, we're planning on more real investments, not less. Am I ignorant, or just pleasantly dumb? ;-)

Love your blog... but I also love Freakonomics.

Is it Really That Bad, George?

Fri, 18 Jul 2008 16:36:45 -0400

On my bookshelf I see "The Great Depression of 1990" by Dr. Ravi Batra, Copyright 1985. Isn't this perceived crisis just the latest in a long series of misperceived crises over the last twenty five years?

by John Gaudio

According to Finaxyz,

'Economists are good at predicting recessions. They've predicted eight of the last three. -- there is no shortage of "professional" cynics all to trigger-happy to forecast doom and gloom.'

I sometimes think the markets are more contests of popularity and popular opinion than anything else. We succeed as individuals because we choose to succeed. When we believe there is no hope, we stop trying, and when we stop trying, we fail.

Tell me, George, and anyone else who has a good answer, what can we as individuals and private organizations do to succeed and prosper in this market? I wasn't ready to throw in the towel in 1985, and I'm not ready to do it today!

Commercial Real Estate Loans and Local Lenders

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 19:54:06 -0400

SBA Loan

George,

Any insight you can give to your readers with regards to how the SBA programs will fair through this mess? Do you think their aggressive guidelines like 90% financing on purchases and or 85% refinance options on the 7a program will be reduced? Thanks in advance.

The Death of Real Estate Investing

Mon, 14 Jul 2008 10:44:18 -0400

QuestionsWhere can we get a copy of the book? and why do you predict a 15 year turn around? That seems very excessive. Also, I would love to hear any comments you have on the current state of our industry and or why with default rates still at or below 1.5% on CMBS loans (accounding to an article in Commercial Mortgage Insight) we are so affected by the subprime industry meltdown.

Commercial BPO's

Thu, 10 Jul 2008 07:55:29 -0400

How do I sign up

Sear Sir:

I am a commerical real estate broker with 36 years experience. I sometimes do residential bpo's and have done commercial bpo's. I would like to do more. how do I sign up to be a broker on your list?

Sig Buster, III, CCIM

fractured condo finance in florida

Mon, 16 Jun 2008 20:11:30 -0400

is it possible to finance a fractured condominum project in Florida?